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The NFL heads into Week 15 with playoff races tightening and injuries reshaping lineups. Our latest set of picks mixes confidence and caution, weighing matchups, health updates and recent form to find edges against the spread.
Week 15 NFL picks and top matchups to watch
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Falcons at Buccaneers — Thursday night clash
Thu 8:15 p.m. ET • Amazon Prime Video
Atlanta’s offense has been tattered by injuries. Tampa Bay under Baker Mayfield should rebound after a tough loss. Containing Bijan Robinson’s burst will be the key.
Pick: Buccaneers 27, Falcons 20 — Bucs cover (-4.5).
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Packers at Broncos — Sunday afternoon spotlight
Sun 4:25 p.m. ET • CBS
Jordan Love has produced big throws lately. Denver’s home defense is a challenge, but Green Bay’s balanced attack and matchup diversity give them the edge.
Pick: Packers 23, Broncos 20 — Packers cover (-2).
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Strong favorites and locks to consider
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49ers vs. Titans — San Francisco looks poised
Sun 4:25 p.m. ET • Fox
San Francisco returns from a bye healthier and sharper. Their top weapons should pressure Tennessee’s young QB and produce steady scoring.
Pick: 49ers 34, Titans 13 — 49ers cover (-12.5).
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Raiders at Eagles — Philly should dominate
Sun 1 p.m. ET • Fox
Las Vegas is inconsistent and dealing with injuries. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles should control this one from start to finish.
Pick: Eagles 38, Raiders 17 — Eagles cover (-12.5).
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Jaguars vs. Jets — Home crowd advantage
Sun 1 p.m. ET • CBS
Jacksonville’s defense attacks quarterbacks, and Trevor Lawrence’s unit is finding rhythm. The Jets’ QB uncertainty favors the Jags.
Pick: Jaguars 30, Jets 14 — Jaguars cover (-11.5).
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Texans vs. Cardinals — Houston’s physical identity
Sun 1 p.m. ET • Fox
Arizona’s defense has slipped. Houston plays tough, fundamental football and should control the trenches.
Pick: Texans 27, Cardinals 14 — Texans cover (-9.5).
Upset alert and dark-horse pick
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Lions at Rams — Potential shootout and surprise
Sun 1 p.m. ET • CBS
Both teams have elite playmakers. Expect a back-and-forth game with plenty of offense. The Lions’ weapons could tip the balance late.
Pick: Lions 34, Rams 31 — Upset (+5.5).
Key AFC and NFC Sunday noon decisions
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Browns at Bears — Rookie duel intensity
Sun 1 p.m. ET • Fox
Caleb Williams wants to respond after a late pick. Chicago’s pass rush and home crowd pressure should help him shine.
Pick: Bears 24, Browns 14 — Bears cover (-7).
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Ravens at Bengals — Divisional rivalry
Sun 1 p.m. ET • CBS
Cincinnati’s offense looks more reliable and Baltimore’s secondary has cracks. Home-field comfort favors the Bengals.
Pick: Bengals 24, Ravens 20 — Ravens favored (-2.5) but lose.
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Chargers at Chiefs — Short week test in KC
Sun 1 p.m. ET • CBS
Justin Herbert’s injury status and a thin week make this tough. Kansas City’s defense can make enough plays to win.
Pick: Chiefs 20, Chargers 17 — Chiefs win but don’t cover (-4.5).
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Bills at Patriots — AFC East stakes
Sun 1 p.m. ET • CBS
Buffalo has star power, but New England’s defense and their bye-week reset help them match up well.
Pick: Patriots 27, Bills 24 — Patriots prevail (Buffalo -1.5).
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Commanders at Giants — NFC East implications
Sun 1 p.m. ET • Fox
Washington is banged up at QB. The Giants appear steadier after the bye and should protect the football smarter.
Pick: Giants 24, Commanders 20 — Giants cover (-2.5).
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Panthers at Saints — Who shows up in New Orleans?
Sun 4:25 p.m. ET • Fox
Carolina is volatile. New Orleans is coming off a boost and looks ready to play inspired at home.
Pick: Panthers 20, Saints 17 — Panthers cover as slight favorites (-2.5).
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Colts at Seahawks — Tough road test for Indy
Sun 4:25 p.m. ET • CBS
Riley Leonard faces a stingy Seattle pass defense. The Seahawks’ balanced attack should produce decisive yardage.
Pick: Seahawks 34, Colts 17 — Seahawks cover (-11.5).
Late window and primetime predictions
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Vikings at Cowboys — Sunday night battle
Sun 8:20 p.m. ET • NBC/Peacock
Dallas remains dangerous at home. If CeeDee Lamb is available, Prescott will have the weapons to outscore Minnesota.
Pick: Cowboys 31, Vikings 24 — Cowboys cover (-6).
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Dolphins at Steelers — Monday night spotlight
Mon 8:15 p.m. ET • ESPN
Pittsburgh’s defense can make life difficult in cold conditions. Miami’s coaching and injury questions make this risky on the road.
Pick: Steelers 27, Dolphins 20 — Steelers cover (-3.5).
Other notable matchups and quick reads
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Jets vs. Jaguars recap
Jaguars’ pass rush and run game form a two-headed threat. Expect Jacksonville to control tempo and field position.
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Cardinals vs. Texans takeaway
Houston’s defensive identity and physical play should keep Arizona from mounting an upset.
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Chargers at Chiefs note
Short week and pass protection issues for Justin Herbert are meaningful modifiers for this line.
Numbers you should know — stats of the week
- Week 14 straight-up record: 7-6
- Week 14 against the spread: 3-10
- 2025 season straight-up record: 132-73
- 2025 season ATS record: 100-109
