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- One vote decided the 2026 NFL MVP — the numbers behind the margin
- Who else received first-place support and why it mattered
- Why a Justin Herbert vote shocked the football world
- Stat lines compared: Stafford, Maye and Herbert
- Who else was in the MVP conversation at AP NFL Honors
- How voters framed value: efficiency, volume, and supporting casts
- Arguments for and against the Herbert ballot pick
- What the narrow result says about MVP voting in the modern NFL
The NFL MVP vote came down to the thinnest of margins, and the debate that followed is still heating up. Matthew Stafford eked out a one-vote win over rookie Drake Maye, producing the closest result ever in the award’s history and reviving questions about what voters value most in the MVP race.
One vote decided the 2026 NFL MVP — the numbers behind the margin
At the Associated Press NFL Honors, the final tally read 24 first-place votes for Matthew Stafford and 23 for Drake Maye. That single-vote gap makes this the tightest MVP decision on record.
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- Total AP voters: 50 national writers and television analysts
- First-place votes: Stafford 24, Maye 23, others 3
- Historical note: The last extremely close outcome was the 2003 Manning–McNair tie.
Who else received first-place support and why it mattered
Most ballots clustered around Stafford and Maye. Yet three ballots went elsewhere and changed the narrative.
- Two voters cast first-place ballots for Josh Allen, arguing his efficiency this season merited recognition.
- One voter gave a first-place vote to Justin Herbert, an outcome that surprised many because Herbert was not a finalist at the NFL Honors event.
Why a Justin Herbert vote shocked the football world
Former Pro Football Focus analyst Sam Monson publicly admitted he was the lone Herbert first-place voter. He defended that choice by pointing to Herbert’s play despite a broken-down offensive line.
Monson’s core point: Herbert produced impact under constant pressure, and that resilience represented outsized value to one voter.
Stat lines compared: Stafford, Maye and Herbert
Comparing raw numbers helps explain voter thinking. Below are the key season totals that shaped the debate.
- Matthew Stafford: 4,709 passing yards, 46 touchdowns, 7.9 yards per attempt, 109.2 passer rating.
- Drake Maye: Led the league with a 72.0 completion rate, 8.9 yards per attempt and a 113.5 passer rating. Also added 450 rushing yards.
- Justin Herbert: 3,727 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, 7.3 yards per attempt, 94.1 passer rating.
Team sack totals help tell the rest of the story: Herbert endured 54 sacks himself while the Chargers allowed 60 total. Maye was hit 47 times, with a rookie left tackle facing inexperience and injuries.
Who else was in the MVP conversation at AP NFL Honors
The five players showcased at NFL Honors were Stafford, Maye and Josh Allen, plus Trevor Lawrence and Christian McCaffrey.
- Trevor Lawrence and Christian McCaffrey rounded out the finalists.
- Neither Lawrence nor McCaffrey received a first-place MVP vote this year.
How voters framed value: efficiency, volume, and supporting casts
AP voters weigh a blend of peak performance, season-long efficiency, and context. That mix helps explain the split ballots.
- Efficiency: Completion rate, yards per attempt and passer rating often sway voters.
- Volume: High passing yards and touchdown totals remain persuasive.
- Context: Playing through injuries or behind a weakened line can earn sympathy.
Stafford posted top-tier volume and touchdown numbers. Maye led key efficiency metrics. Herbert logged grit metrics that convinced at least one voter despite weaker overall efficiency.
Arguments for and against the Herbert ballot pick
Reasoning in favor
- Overcame a disintegrating offensive line.
- Delivered plays that changed games while under extreme pressure.
- Voters citing “value” argued his performance was more impressive given the circumstances.
Counterpoints from the majority view
- Herbert’s aggregate stats trailed both Stafford and Maye in efficiency and volume.
- MVP history heavily favors standout passing numbers and team success.
- Many felt Herbert’s struggles and turnover total weakened his case.
What the narrow result says about MVP voting in the modern NFL
This vote underscores an evolving debate. Some voters prize raw statistics and wins. Others emphasize resilience and impact under duress.
Key takeaway: The MVP award remains subjective, and a single ballot can alter the record book.
