Arch Manning 2023 recruiting class: why its 5-star QBs flopped

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• How the 2023 recruiting class looked on paper
• Five-star quarterbacks from 2023: where they stand now
  • Arch Manning — Texas’ roller-coaster
  • Nico Iamaleava — flashes disrupted by moves and injury
  • Dante Moore — bouncing between programs, finding form
  • Jackson Arnold — journeyman development arc
  • Malachi Nelson — quiet path across programs
• Under-the-radar QBs who exceeded expectations
  • Darian Mensah — from Group of Six to national contender
  • Gio Lopez — climbed through the transfer ladder
  • Avery Johnson — consistency at Kansas State
  • Kenny Minchey and Austin Simmons — late bloomers
• Non-quarterback standouts and NFL prospects from the class
• Why top recruits sometimes stall — scouting vs. development
• Key takeaways for fans and scouts tracking the class

Texas’ Arch Manning entered his second college season carrying sky-high expectations, but through six games in 2026 the Heisman talk has cooled. His struggles are part of a larger pattern: many of the 2023 five-star quarterback recruits have not yet matched the billing they received in high school.

How the 2023 recruiting class looked on paper

The high school class of 2023 arrived with several elite signal-callers and top-rated prospects. Recruiting services pegged a handful of quarterbacks as future stars, creating big headlines and big expectations for their programs.

• Top-ranked prospects included Arch Manning, Nico Iamaleava, Dante Moore, Jackson Arnold and Malachi Nelson.
• Many of those players were five-star recruits, which amplified the scrutiny when immediate college success didn’t consistently follow.
• Recruiting evaluations are projections, not promises. Several later-round or unheralded QBs have outperformed their initial grades.

Five-star quarterbacks from 2023: where they stand now

Below is a concise look at each five-star QB from that cycle. The focus is on performance, transfers and the challenges that have tempered some expectations.

Arch Manning — Texas’ roller-coaster

At Texas, Manning has shown flashes of elite talent and troubling turnover issues. His 2025 totals included over 3,100 passing yards, 26 TDs and seven interceptions, plus nearly 400 rushing yards and 10 rushing TDs.

• Big moments: a late fourth-quarter comeback win over Ohio State showcased his playmaking.
• Problem areas: turnovers in key losses—interceptions and a decisive strip-sack—have shadowed his progress.
• Depth chart: his backup, KJ Lacey, has picked up more first-team reps amid concerns.

Takeaway: Manning still has the physical tools, but consistency and decision-making remain under the microscope.

Nico Iamaleava — flashes disrupted by moves and injury

Iamaleava reached the College Football Playoff with Tennessee, then transferred to UCLA amid off-field complications. His 2024 season was solid, but a difficult 2025 and a season-ending ACL in 2026 interrupted momentum.

• 2024 at Tennessee: productive enough to help secure a CFP spot.
• UCLA move: mixed results and coaching turnover affected continuity.
• Injury: torn ACL cut his 2026 campaign short.

Takeaway: Talent remains undeniable, but circumstances and health have limited consistent growth.

Dante Moore — bouncing between programs, finding form

Moore’s path included an early commitment flip and multiple program moves. After a tough freshman stretch at UCLA, he transferred to Oregon and produced his best season, throwing for over 3,500 yards and 30 TDs.

• Early struggles: turnovers and benching at UCLA.
• Resurgence: strong statistical year at Oregon and an Orange Bowl win highlight upside.
• Current status: sidelined by concussion issues in 2026.

Takeaway: Moore demonstrated high-level ability but has been inconsistent and health-sensitive.

Jackson Arnold — journeyman development arc

Arnold’s collegiate journey has involved multiple schools and starting opportunities. After beginning at Oklahoma, he transferred to Auburn and later UNLV, where he posted solid rushing and passing numbers.

• Oklahoma stint: up-and-down starts and benchings.
• Transfers: searching for a consistent home; UNLV produced his best stats to date.
• Durability: took many sacks early in his career, but has shown resilience.

Takeaway: Arnold has steadily improved, though he hasn’t cemented star-level status.

Malachi Nelson — quiet path across programs

Nelson’s trajectory landed him as a backup at USC, a brief stop at Boise State, and limited action at UTEP and Syracuse. His cumulative numbers are modest, and injuries have played a role.

• Multiple stops limited rhythm and development time.
• Combined college stats reflect more flashes than full seasons.

Takeaway: Nelson shows the volatility of quarterback development when stability is absent.

Under-the-radar QBs who exceeded expectations

Not every big-time impact player came with five-star hype. Several lower-ranked or mid-tier recruits have become major contributors.

Darian Mensah — from Group of Six to national contender

A late-blooming passer, Mensah began with one FBS offer and grew into a program leader. After success at Tulane and Duke, he moved to Miami and emerged as a national name.

• Strengths: elite completion rate and pocket awareness.
• Impact: Heisman buzz and No. 1 team rankings followed strong play.

Gio Lopez — climbed through the transfer ladder

Lopez started at South Alabama, moved to UNC, and then found stability at Wake Forest. He’s become a reliable dual-threat and helped spark a 6-1 start.

• 2024 breakout: solid yardage and rushing scores.
• Current role: high efficiency and big-play production for Wake Forest.

Avery Johnson — consistency at Kansas State

Johnson has been the model of steady production. Over multiple seasons he accumulated strong passing totals and significant rushing yards.

• Durable performer with consistent output.

Kenny Minchey and Austin Simmons — late bloomers

Both moved from limited early roles to become key starters. Minchey’s transfer to Kentucky helped fuel a surprise 6-1 start. Simmons found a rhythm at Missouri after injuries and competition knocked him off track.

Non-quarterback standouts and NFL prospects from the class

While many top QBs have been uneven, the 2023 class produced numerous high-level non-QB players. Several were selected early in the 2026 NFL Draft.

• Kadyn Proctor — offensive tackle, Miami Dolphins rookie.
• Francis Mauigoa — lineman for the New York Giants.
• Zachariah Branch — Falcons receiver.
• T.J. Parker — Buffalo Bills prospect.
• Caleb Downs — Cowboys safety.
• Carnell Tate and Anthony Hill Jr. — Titans rookie targets and linebackers, respectively.
• Other contributors: Suntarine Perkins, Duce Robinson, CJ Baxter among starters and impact players.

Why top recruits sometimes stall — scouting vs. development

Evaluators and coaches point to several recurring themes when elite high school QBs don’t immediately translate to college stardom.

• Environment: Protection, playmakers and playcalling matter. Offensive line play and scheme fit shape a quarterback’s success.
• Intangibles: Decision-making, processing speed and leadership are harder to measure before college.
• Health and continuity: Injuries and coaching changes disrupt progression.
• Pressure: Five-star label raises expectations and scrutiny, which can affect confidence and development.

Scouts note that some prospects possess rare physical tools but still need time to develop the mental and situational aspects of the position.

Key takeaways for fans and scouts tracking the class

The 2023 quarterback group has been a mix of unmet expectations and surprising success stories. Some five-star QBs are still finding their footing. Others from lower rankings have become program leaders.

• Player trajectories can change quickly through coaching, health and fit.
• Recruiting rankings are useful, but not definitive predictors of NFL or college success.
• Keep watching mid-tier recruits; many have become difference-makers in 2026.