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- How we collected the insights behind these trends
- Revenue outlook: cautious optimism amid cost pressures
- Discount strategies and alternatives to price cuts
- Advertising channels: streaming and TV make a comeback
- Which marketing tactics are rising — and which are fading
- Sales channels: owned sites and stores see reduced focus
- Marketplaces, purchase frequency and channel choice
- Social commerce spotlight: TikTok Shop emerges
- AI shifts from experiment to central strategy
- Practical moves brands are making now
Retailers and brands are mapping out their plans for the 2026 holiday season as shoppers tighten their budgets and inflation bites into margins. Marketers face pressure to show measurable returns, and many are rethinking discounts, channels and creative tactics to capture consumer attention during the fourth-quarter rush.
How we collected the insights behind these trends
Modern Retail+ Research surveyed 90 brand and retail marketing professionals. The questionnaire covered past and planned holiday channels, promotional tactics, discount levels and revenue expectations vs. 2025. We also conducted interviews with executives from A-Frame Brands, Mastercard and Ritual to add industry perspective.
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Revenue outlook: cautious optimism amid cost pressures
Most companies expect a revenue uptick this holiday season. About 76% of respondents forecast 2026 holiday revenue to rise between 1% and 31% or more versus 2025. None predicted a drop larger than 11%.
Still, executives voiced concerns about rising expenses. Shipping, fuel and broader inflationary trends are squeezing margins. Some smaller brands may struggle if heavy discounting becomes the norm.
Industry leaders noted that politics and consumer sentiment could influence buying behavior this year. Others expect spending to skew toward experiences and personalized gifts, rather than mass-market items.
Discount strategies and alternatives to price cuts
Keeping discounts steady
The majority of brands plan to hold discounting steady. Roughly 81% say their holiday discounts will be similar to last year, rather than deeper markdowns.
Promotions that preserve margin
- Bundling multiple items into a single offer.
- Gifts with purchase or trial-size add-ons.
- Exclusive bundles for loyalty members.
- Cross-promotions with like-minded brands.
These tactics aim to increase perceived value without eroding profit. Brands say gift-with-purchase items can seed repeat sales. Partnership bundles help spread acquisition costs across brands.
Rewards, exclusive access and personalized offers are also gaining traction as ways to build long-term loyalty instead of one-off holiday conversions.
Advertising channels: streaming and TV make a comeback
Marketers are shifting where they spend ad dollars. Streaming/CTV and TV spots show strong year-over-year growth in planned use.
- CTV/streaming ads planned by 45% of respondents, up from 23% in 2025.
- TV ads planned by 33% of respondents, up from 13% in 2025.
Interviewees say streaming works well during the holidays because viewing spikes. However, brands that choose streaming need year-round data to prove ROI. TV and streaming are viewed as effective for targeting specific demographics, especially older audiences.
Which marketing tactics are rising — and which are fading
Brands are reallocating efforts away from some digital-first tactics and back toward high-reach media.
- Brand experiences fell in planned use but remain historically effective.
- Gift guides and influencer unboxing content are being used less this year.
- Pop-up shops and catalogs still show solid conversion potential.
Despite decreased short-term usage, gift guides remain a top historic performer. Experts expect gift guides to regain importance as AI-driven search and recommendation tools rely on curated lists and “best of” formats.
Sales channels: owned sites and stores see reduced focus
Fewer brands plan to prioritize owned channels for holiday sales than last year.
- Owned e-commerce usage planned by 46% of respondents, down from 69% in 2025.
- Owned brick-and-mortar usage planned by 60%, down from 84% a year earlier.
Still, most marketers say owned physical stores and company websites become more important during holidays. The drop in planned usage may reflect a strategy to spread investment across more touchpoints.
Brands and experts point to an increasingly fragmented shopping journey. Discovery might start on social apps, shift to retailer sites for comparison, and finish elsewhere. That fragmentation drives investment in connected experiences rather than a single channel.
Marketplaces, purchase frequency and channel choice
Amazon remains a dominant marketplace, but it isn’t the automatic best choice for every brand.
- 33% of brands plan to sell on Amazon this holiday.
- 38% say Amazon grows more important to holiday sales.
- 29% plan to use other digital marketplaces, with 26% calling them more important this season.
Channel strategy should align with purchase frequency. For low-frequency, discovery-driven categories, marketplaces make sense. For high-frequency purchases, owning the customer experience often pays off.
Social commerce spotlight: TikTok Shop emerges
This survey tracked TikTok Shop as its own channel for the first time. It led planned social commerce use.
- 21% of respondents plan to use TikTok Shop this holiday season.
- Only 6% plan to use other social commerce platforms as standalone channels.
Experts warn that TikTok Shop favors creator-led commerce. Brands that excel at influencer partnerships will do better than traditional brand storefronts on the platform.
AI shifts from experiment to central strategy
Executives expect AI to influence nearly every stage of holiday marketing.
- Creative production and ad personalization at scale.
- AI-powered search and shopping assistants guiding purchase decisions.
- Automation that enables agents or bots to shop on behalf of consumers.
AI is no longer optional, interviewees said. Marketers must ensure products and offers are discoverable by both humans and AI tools. That means structured data, clear product descriptions and signals that feed recommendation engines.
Firms that adopt AI for creative velocity and precision targeting can win share without simply increasing ad spend. The new battleground is relevance and timing, not budget alone.
Practical moves brands are making now
- Prioritizing loyalty perks to reduce costly new-customer acquisition.
- Testing streaming ad buys with year-round measurement plans.
- Building bundles and cross-brand gift sets to protect margins.
- Optimizing product data and content for AI discovery.
- Working with creators for social commerce platforms like TikTok Shop.
These approaches reflect a broader strategy: create meaningful value, stay discoverable across fragmented journeys, and use AI to deliver timely, personalized incentives.
