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- What the research shows about 2026 holiday revenue expectations
- Economic pressures are shaping strategy
- Where shoppers are likely to spend: experiences and purposeful gifting
- Promotions will tilt toward value, not blanket discounts
- How brands plan to retain customers and reduce acquisition costs
- Personalization and better signals: the smarter play
- Practical tactics marketers are testing this holiday
- Operational challenges to watch
- Where to allocate marketing dollars this season
Marketing teams enter the 2026 holiday season with a brighter outlook than a year ago. A recent Modern Retail+ Research report reveals many brands and retailers expect revenue gains, even as inflation and rising costs force smarter promotional choices. Executives say the season will be less about steep markdowns and more about targeted value, loyalty plays and experiential gifts.
What the research shows about 2026 holiday revenue expectations
The report combined a survey of 90 brand and retailer professionals with interviews of marketing leaders. The headline: a large share of respondents are counting on growth.
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- 76% of surveyed marketers expect 2026 holiday revenue to rise versus 2025, by between 1% and 31% or more.
- No respondents forecast a drop greater than 11% compared to last year.
- 81% say their holiday discounts will be about the same as in 2025.
Those figures suggest many teams anticipate steady or improved holiday performance, while avoiding drastic price cuts that can erode margins.
Economic pressures are shaping strategy
Despite optimism, executives are realistic about headwinds. Rising costs for production, transportation and fuel are squeezing margins. Inflation remains top of mind for planners.
A leader at an incubator for consumer brands warned that higher costs and a softer economy will test smaller firms. He said run-up expenses make heavy discounting difficult to sustain.
Political cycles may also affect consumer sentiment. In an election year, debates about inflation and affordability can change shoppers’ appetite for spending.
Where shoppers are likely to spend: experiences and purposeful gifting
Brands in health and wellness and lifestyle categories expect consumers to prioritize meaningful purchases.
One C-suite marketer noted growing cultural interest in nostalgia, intentional time with loved ones, and gifts that feel personal. She predicts people will favor experiences or items with a clear point of view.
- Gifts tied to experiences or personalization.
- Founder‑led, mission-driven brands may draw stronger interest.
- Health and wellness products that resonate with values could win share.
Promotions will tilt toward value, not blanket discounts
Most brands say they will not increase discount depth this season. Instead, many are shifting to offers that preserve margin while increasing perceived value.
- Bundled product packages.
- Gift-with-purchase incentives.
- Exclusive seasonal drops for existing customers.
Executives argue bundling works well during holidays because consumers often buy multiples. A free trial-size product or a small add-on can turn a gift purchase into an opportunity for new repeat buyers.
How brands plan to retain customers and reduce acquisition costs
With customer acquisition more expensive around the holidays, marketers are prioritizing retention tactics.
- Offering exclusivity and early access to loyal customers.
- Creating compelling gifts-with-purchase for repeat buyers.
- Cross-promotions with like-minded brands to extend reach at lower cost.
For example, a supplement brand described co-branded gift swaps with a skincare partner. These collaborations create bundles that feel curated and can benefit both companies.
Personalization and better signals: the smarter play
Executives from a major payments company urged marketers to think beyond short-term promotions. Their advice: build value through personalization and targeted incentives.
What that looks like in practice
- Use intent signals to identify who needs a nudge.
- Deliver personalized offers at the right moment.
- Prioritize exclusive access and relevant recommendations over blanket discounts.
Smart personalization lets brands reward high‑potential customers without cutting price for everyone. The approach supports long-term loyalty rather than one-off sales.
Practical tactics marketers are testing this holiday
- Create small trial-sized gifts to include in orders.
- Bundle complementary products with a perceived savings headline.
- Run limited-time experiences or virtual events tied to products.
- Partner with adjacent brands to share audiences and lower marketing spend.
- Target offers based on behavioral signals rather than demographic broad strokes.
Operational challenges to watch
Higher freight and fuel costs add complexity to pricing and fulfillment plans. Brands will need to weigh free-shipping thresholds against margin erosion.
Smaller companies, in particular, may struggle to absorb extra costs while maintaining promotional effectiveness.
Where to allocate marketing dollars this season
Decisions will vary by brand, but three priorities emerge from the research and interviews.
- Invest in existing customers. Loyalty programs and exclusive perks pay off.
- Focus on products that tell a story. Narrative-driven items can command a premium.
- Use data to personalize. Better signals make incentives more efficient.
Brands that balance short-term sales with long-term relationship building may navigate the season with healthier margins.
