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When a mattress brand wants to prove that TV commercials still bring customers through the front door, the answer can’t come from clicks alone. Saatva, which sells luxury mattresses online and in 22 showrooms across the U.S., teamed with data scientists to trace how broadcast and streaming TV ads translate into real foot traffic and purchases. The findings show TV can move more than brand awareness — but only when measurement accounts for time, place and seasonal trends.
How Saatva and analysts linked ads to store sales
Saatva asked a straightforward question: how much of our in-store revenue comes from our TV buys? The work began with a joint effort between Saatva’s marketing team and Tatari’s data scientists.
The team built a statistical model that matched weekly TV ad spending by designated market area (DMA) to weekly sales at Saatva’s showrooms. Instead of assuming a direct, immediate relationship, the model simulated the real-world ways people see an ad, think about it, and eventually buy.
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Why a basic attribution model wasn’t enough
- One-to-one attribution misses delayed actions. Consumers often act days or weeks after seeing a spot.
- Local behaviors vary. A big metro area behaves differently than a small city.
- Seasonal or promotion-driven spikes can mask advertising effects.
The result: a richer, regionalized picture of TV’s influence rather than a single national estimate.
Factors the model accounted for to separate ad-driven sales
To isolate the advertising signal, the analysts folded in multiple controls. Each held part of the puzzle that could otherwise give ads undue credit.
- Ad carryover (the echo effect). Ads have lingering influence. Spending in one week can boost sales in subsequent weeks.
- Holiday and promotional adjustments. Large sales events are treated separately so TV doesn’t get credit for predictable holiday lifts.
- Market structure and store counts. The model adjusted for how many stores operate within each DMA.
- Population and distance metrics. Analysts measured the number of potential customers living within defined radiuses of each showroom.
- Seasonality and long-term trends. Mattress buying patterns change by season and over years. The model included those trends.
These elements helped the model forecast baseline sales without TV. Comparing that baseline to the forecast that included TV provided an estimate of ad-attributable retail sales.
What the analysis revealed about TV’s real-world effect
The study found that TV advertising accounted for a measurable portion of Saatva’s retail volume. Across the markets analyzed, about 5.7% of in-store sales were attributable to TV ads. For a high-consideration product like a mattress, that uplift is meaningful.
Results were not uniform. Some DMAs showed stronger responsiveness to TV, while others delivered smaller returns. Those local differences offer tactical insight for media planning.
- Markets where ad exposure turned quickly into store visits became prime candidates for heavier TV investment.
- Areas with low ad responsiveness suggested testing other channels or creative approaches.
Alex Diesbach, Saatva’s VP of marketing, described the work as a practical upgrade to decision-making. With regional performance visible, the team could refine budget allocations and media mixes. Instead of relying on intuition, they now had data that linked TV spend to tangible retail outcomes.
Why this method matters for retail marketers
Many retailers still rely on online signals to judge ad performance. But shoppers who browse online often purchase in person. This study demonstrates how combining TV scheduling, geolocation and sales history can close that gap.
Key takeaways for marketers:
- Measure at the market level, not just nationally.
- Model time-lag effects to capture delayed purchases.
- Separate promotional periods to avoid overstating ad impact.
- Use store counts and population proximity to normalize results.
By marrying traditional media with modern analytics, brands can quantify TV’s role in driving offline revenue. Saatva’s experience shows that with the right controls, TV advertising can be proven as a driver of real-world retail sales.
Analysis performed in partnership with Tatari.
