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- How marketers see 2025 holiday revenue and the forces behind it
- Audience focus: balancing new-customer acquisition and loyalty
- Playbook for attracting new shoppers during peak season
- Timing and promotional cadence for BFCM and pre-holiday activity
- Which channels move product and which build brand momentum
- Digital tactics that support gifting behavior and conversion
- Segmentation: avoid alienating loyal customers while pursuing new ones
- Is Amazon still a holiday must-have?
- Channels and operations: same platforms, different execution for holidays
- Creative, paid strategies and automation that move the needle
The run-up to the 2025 holiday season is already reshaping marketing plans for indie and retail brands. Digiday+ Research polled industry pros and spoke with Amy Kapolnek, founder of growth shop Fwrd Group, to map out what’s working, what’s risky and how teams can turn seasonal demand into lasting customers.
How marketers see 2025 holiday revenue and the forces behind it
Expectations for holiday sales are cautious. Many brands project little to no growth versus 2024.
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- Projected growth: Kapolnek estimates low single-digit gains at best.
- Why the caution: Higher living costs and tariffs squeeze disposable income.
- 2024 context: Last season outperformed forecasts in some categories, but that momentum may not repeat.
Audience focus: balancing new-customer acquisition and loyalty
The holiday window is unique. Shoppers broaden habits and try new labels. That behavior opens acquisition opportunities.
Kapolnek explains her split approach:
- Push heavier for new customers during the season to drive trial and discovery.
- For existing customers, favor value-driven offerings over blanket discounts.
Examples of loyalty plays include VIP early access, limited editions and bundled gifts. These tactics reward repeat buyers and spark organic referrals.
Playbook for attracting new shoppers during peak season
To win trial without exhausting budgets, Kapolnek favors partnerships and discoverable products.
- Collaborate with relevant influencers and complementary brands for credibility.
- Prioritize giftable sets and discovery kits on DTC and Amazon to lower trial friction.
- Use targeted bundles that simplify gifting decisions and boost conversion.
Smart collaborations extend reach without the high cost of scaled paid media.
Timing and promotional cadence for BFCM and pre-holiday activity
A rigid, well-planned promotions calendar beats reactive discounting. Kapolnek’s teams often start earlier than BFCM.
- Pre-holiday sales in late September or early October capture early shoppers.
- BFCM campaigns run for a week rather than a single day, to cut through the noise.
- Reserve some offers for later days, like Cyber Monday, for continued momentum.
Focus: Protect brand equity by selling value, not just percentage-off deals.
Which channels move product and which build brand momentum
Different tactics produce different outcomes. Retail partnerships and physical presence still drive immediate sales.
- In-store activations with retail partners convert well during holiday foot traffic.
- Off-price and discovery platforms such as TJ Maxx, QVC and curated subscription boxes can spark sampling.
- Paid media can scale awareness but is costly and faces consumer ad fatigue.
Breaking through requires creative that feels personal and instantly relevant. The right creative leads shoppers to follow brand pages and engage with automated onboarding flows.
Why brand activations still matter
Physical activations create memorable experiences that screens cannot. That in-person connection fuels conversion and repeat purchases.
Digital tactics that support gifting behavior and conversion
Strong e-commerce and owned channels are essential for holiday performance.
- Seasonal storytelling on social and influencer content that frames items as gifts.
- Email flows that target gifting versus self-purchase intent.
- E-commerce UX: clear bundles, fast checkout and last-ship cutoff messaging.
Customer service is a competitive edge. Rapid replies, easy returns and small touches like gift receipts boost loyalty.
Segmentation: avoid alienating loyal customers while pursuing new ones
Holiday campaigns risk devaluing longtime buyers if brands only chase new audiences. Segmented messaging keeps offers relevant.
- Give loyal customers early access or exclusive kits.
- Target discovery language and heavy gifting creative to new audiences.
Is Amazon still a holiday must-have?
Contrary to some reports of brand departures, Kapolnek sees indie and beauty brands leaning into Amazon.
- Category growth: U.S. Amazon skincare sales climbed significantly in 2024.
- Prime Day and discovery: Major events and Amazon’s product-discovery role make it hard to ignore.
- Caveat: Some brands need more education than Amazon allows and may delay joining.
Smart sellers use Amazon selectively: exclusive products, special bundles and strategies that funnel shoppers back to DTC.
Channels and operations: same platforms, different execution for holidays
Brands typically rely on DTC, Amazon and retail partners. What changes is the waterfall of how those channels are used.
- Merchandising shifts toward gift bundles and discovery packs.
- Paid media ramps but must be more creative and efficient.
- Fulfillment and returns become critical operational priorities during peak season.
Carriers face heavy loads in Q4. A delayed shipment or a difficult return often costs a brand the customer. Conversely, seamless fulfillment and thoughtful touches can convert a seasonal buyer into a long-term fan.
Creative, paid strategies and automation that move the needle
High-cost paid channels demand superior creative to overcome ad fatigue.
- Create thumb-stopping visuals that address real-life needs.
- Use automation tools to welcome and convert new followers into buyers.
- Integrate paid and owned channels so discovery leads back to brand platforms.
Bottom line: The brands that treat holiday as an activation window — not a discount race — are the ones building sustainable value.
